The standing assumption that price-sensitive retail markets simply stop buying above a threshold has aged badly. Volumes fell, then adjusted: lighter pieces, higher exchange of old metal, more purchases structured around festivals and instalments.
Policy is the swing factor
Where duty rates and documentation requirements have been stable, the official channel has held share. Where they have moved, the grey market has taken the difference within weeks. That is a governance outcome rather than a price outcome, and it is measurable.
What to watch next
Exchange premiums and discounts remain the cleanest real-time read on whether the official channel is clearing. A persistent discount is not weak demand; it is demand going somewhere the statistics cannot see.
