The sector has spent two years doing what investors asked: cutting capital expenditure, returning cash, and avoiding acquisitions. The discount has narrowed marginally and remains wide.
What is being priced
A decade of cost overruns, reserve write-downs and acquisitions made at the top of the cycle. Trust is repriced over cycles, not quarters.
What would change it
Delivery against guidance, three years running, with reconciliation published rather than summarised.
