Tuesday 11 August 2026Vol. VI
Customs documentation and sealed metal shipment cases
Illicit flows

Trade data still cannot reconcile who exported the gold and who received it

Mirror statistics between producing and importing states diverge by billions each year. The gap is a policy failure, not a rounding error.

By Tomas Lindqvist & Sofia Andrade

Comparing declared exports with counterpart declared imports is the crudest possible test of integrity, and gold fails it consistently and at scale.

The gap is structural

Transit hubs re-export without attributing origin. Refined metal loses the identity of its feedstock. Some producing states have no practical capacity to weigh what leaves.

Reconciliation is possible

It requires origin attribution to survive refining, which is a documentation standard rather than a technology problem, and one the industry has resisted for exactly that reason.

Tomas Lindqvist
Reserves Analyst, Official Sector

Tomas analyses central bank reserve management and sovereign balance sheets, with a particular interest in how official-sector buying is reported and settled.

Sofia Andrade
Latin America Mining Correspondent

Sofia is a Latin America mining correspondent covering permitting, community consultation and informal production in the Andean belt.